Predictions 2024: In the Year of the Dragon Will China See a Slow Decay or Sudden Collapse?
2024 was originally to be a crucial window for the CCP's so-called "reunification with Taiwan," but predictions are that mounting problems could interfere.
By Jennifer Zeng
Happy New Year to JAPAN Forward readers. We are pleased to bring you "Predictions 2024," a special New Year's series sharing the foresight and expectations of selected contributors for the coming year in their fields of specialty, continuing with Jennifer Zeng, our contributing China analyst.
Next in the Series
Some Chinese netizens say that if they were to summarize China in 2023 with a single Chinese character, it would be "烂" (rotten). Others suggest "崩" (collapse) or "跌" (fall). However, the official annual character chosen was "振" (revive), symbolizing revitalization and upliftment. So, what Chinese character might we predict for China in 2024?
In 1997, Gordon Chang, an expert on Chinese issues, wrote a book titled "The Coming Collapse of China." In it, he predicted that China would collapse by 2011. However, 2011 came and went without such a collapse.
In 2017, Chinese scholars He Qinglian and Cheng Xiaonong co-authored "China: Crumbling But Not Collapsing (《中國：潰而不崩》)." They predicted that China would maintain a state of "crumbling but not collapsing" over the next 10-20 years. According to their forecast, China is still in this era of "crumbling but not collapsing."
Perhaps even the most astute scholars cannot precisely predict the future. However, when cancer cells have spread to the skin's surface to the extent that they are "visible to the naked eye," even a person with no medical knowledge can conclude that the patient's end is near.
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1/6/2024**
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