The Collapse of the Three Gorges Dam: A Preview
Hello, everyone, nice to see you!
After today’s news updates, I will talk about a very hot issue and a very hot video: The possibility of the collapse of the Three Gorges Dam. So stay tuned.
First, let’s go to our news updates.
Huawei Announces 'End of Global 5G Deployment'
As more countries are joining the United States to reject Huawei as an enterprise of the Chinese Communist Party, the CCP, the once ambitious telecoms giant is announcing that its global 5G deployment "has come to an end."
At the start of this year, the Chinese company Huawei was recognized as the world’s largest 5G cell phone maker, surpassing Samsung in global sales. But on July 27, Hauwei’s chairman, Guo Ping announced that the company’s meteoric expansion had come to an end. Their focus on infrastructure development and product distribution would be shifted to developing applications.
This large-scale business downturn was not sudden, but the result of growing awareness around the world of Hauwei’s sinister intentions on behalf of the Chinese Communist Party, the CCP. Hauwei’s goal to achieve cyber domination via it’s “One Belt One Road” initiative involving 70 countries was not to improve the quality of life, as they would like you to believe, but to facilitate the regime’s desire to expand communist totalitarianism.
The CCP’s true intentions became apparent as countries across the free world began to recognize Hauwei’s efforts in attempting to breach their security so as to facilitate the regime’s spying and theft of technology.
The plan to combat this communist threat is to disrupt Hauwei’s material supply chain so their 5G products can’t be manufactured and to engage multiple countries in banning the introduction and use of those products.
The United States has already restricted the export of semiconductor chips to Hauwei and Taiwan’s TSMC, the world’s leading chip foundry announced it was halting its distribution of materials to Hauwei.
Not only has Hauwei become unsustainable as a manufacturer, Great Britain, France, and Italy are taking actions to ban the introduction of their 5G products and it is anticipated that other countries will do the same.
Urumqi Hit Hard by the CCP Virus, Modular Hospital Being Built
If you are familiar with the map of China, you’ll know that Xinjiang autonomous region is thousands of miles away from Wuhan, the city where the CCP virus originated. Right now, the region is again hit hard by the virus.
The city of Urumqi within China’s Xinjiang region is struggling to contain the spread of the COVID 19 virus. Residents there were recently quarantined for two weeks, but even then, the virus continued its spread. On July 26 and 27, a total of 98 new cases were confirmed.
This recent outbreak prompted city officials to do as other nearby cities have done which is to issue a “City Closure Order.” The intent of which is to isolate the residents by restricting their travel and in the hardest-hit areas, sealing people’s doors so they can’t leave their homes. An online video also showed the building of a modular hospital to treat the growing number of patients.
Authorities in Xinjiang have not explained the cause of this recent outbreak or how bad it could potentially become. This lack of transparency as well as being forcibly isolated has created economic hardships for the local residents who are now upset and complaining.
A report by The Epoch Times suggested that the resurgence of the virus in Urumqi began on July 5 and was likely caused by the lack of social distancing. On that day, a thousand people had attended a wedding banquet. Additional cases are highly probable.
Banks Are Disappearing
Human life losses are not the only form of loss caused by the CCP virus. The banking industry in China is also suffering and has been shrinking at an accelerated pace.
China’s Daily Securities reports that traditional banks are disappearing. So far this year 1,639 banks have closed their doors. This is twice the number of banks that closed last year.
Not only has the COVID 19 virus deterred people from visiting their local banks, but it has also wrecked the economy causing millions to lose their jobs and incomes. Without money, jobless workers don’t need a bank.
Nor do people with jobs need a traditional bank, say industry observers like an international commentator, Wen Xiaogang. It has become fast, safe, and convenient for people to do their banking online. Paychecks are directly deposited and money is now commonly exchanged electronically via services like WeChat, Alipay, and PayPal, to name just a few.
A Preview of the collapse of the Three Gorges Dam
Now, let’s go right to our main topic today: The possibility of the collapse of the Three Gorges Dam.
If you are following me on Twitter or Facebook, you must have seen a lot of video clips I shared regarding how badly and widespread the floods in China have been this year. After seeing the severity of the floods, people started to worry about the safety of the Three Gorges Dam, especially after some photos were circulated on the Internet showing that the dam had distorted.
After keeping quiet about the possible distortion of the dam for a while, on July 18, Chinese authorities admitted the Three Gorges dam has “moved, leaked, and distorted.” On the same day, the dam saw its most severe flooding of the year.
However, the Chinese authorities did not give any specific data on the displacement, seepage, and deformation, only stating in general terms that it was "within the normal range".
On July 23, a short video appeared on Chinese social media, with a vivid 3D computer-generated demonstration of what could happen if the Three Gorges Dam breaks.
The video starts with some basic specifics of the Three Gorges Dam: It is 181 meters high, 2355 meters long. Normal water storage height is 175 meters, with a total capacity of 39.3 billion cubic meters.
Then it starts to show what will happen when the dam suddenly collapses, with a note that all the data used for this demonstration is just an estimation, and should not be used as an actual reference.
Next, the video demonstrates what could happen after the dam breaks.
The flood will quickly pour down, with a water lever as high as 100 meters. The floodwaters cannot disperse because of the barrier of the mountains on both sides.
The speed of the downpour water will be faster than 100 km, or 62 miles per hour.
Within 30 minutes of the collapse of the Three Gorges Dam, the floodwater will destroy Gezhouba Dam, which is 38 km, or 24 miles downstream of the Three Gorges Dam. Then the flood will arrive at Yichang City, the first city immediately downstream of the Three Gorges Dam. The length of the river between Yichang and the Three Gorges Dam is 50 km or 31 miles.
At this stage, the water level will be 20 meters, with a flow rate of 70 km, or 44 miles per hour. The entire Yichang city will be completely destroyed in no time.
Please note that Yichang has a population of 4.13 million.
Within 5 hours, the water level of Yichang will reach 10 meters.
After swallowing up Yichang, the flood washes on, and continues to flood all the towns and cities along its way with a flow rate at no less than 60 km or 37 miles per hour. The level of the flood will be 15-20 meters.
Then it will reach open plains. The water will begin to spread around the area and continue to fan out, greatly increasing the area affected.
The water level will then be reduced to less than 8 meters, with a flow rate of 25 km, or 15 miles per hour.
However, the flow rate at the main channel of the Yangtze River will be no less than 35 km, or 21 miles per hour.
Then it will reach Jingzhou, a city in Hubei province, with a population of 6.37 million. The water level will be 7 meter.
After flooding Jingzhou, part of the floodwaters spreading out of the main river will head straight for Wuhan.
5 hours after the collapse, the flood water will reach Yueyang, a city in Hunan province, and about 350 km, or 217 miles away from the Dam. Dongting Lake near Yueyang City has a capacity of 22 billion cubic meters. If the collapse doesn’t happen during the flood season, the lake can become a great buffer to the floodwaters.
Yueyang’s population is near 6 million, and the water level will be 5 meters here. However, because of the buffering and diversion of Dongting Lake, the city will not be flooded for a long time.
Then widespread flooding continues to push eastward. After being buffered by another lake, Hong Lake, part of the water will be held there. Hong Lake’s total capacity is about 16 billion cubic meters.
The length of the river course between the Three Gorges Dam and Wuhan city is 700 km, or 435 miles. So 10 hours after the Dam collapses, the flood will reach Wuhan.
From the COVID 19, or CCP Virus pandemic, we all know that Wuhan’s population is about 11 million.
Wuhan is 18-40 meters above sea level and the floodwaters will reach about 7 meters above ground level of Wuhan. Part of Wuhan could be preserved, while the depth of flooding will be about 5 meters.
However, due to the sudden narrowing of the waterway after Wuhan, the flood water will be discharged slowly and the water in Wuhan is not easy to recede.
The Dabie Mountains and Lushan Mountain form a narrow passage as the flood flows on. Floodwaters will pile up here, and the water level will rise to 6-8 meters. The height and flow rate will both increase.
15 hours after the collapse, the floodwaters will arrive at Jiujiang, a city in Jiangxi Province, and 1000 km, or 621 miles away from the Dam in terms of river length.
As there are many lakes in the territory of Jiujiang, which is close to Poyang Lake, and with the mountains at the back, the flooding in Jiujiang city will reach more than 7 meters if the collapse happens during the flood season, and the water is difficult to retreat.
Jiujiang has a population of around 5 million.
Poyang Lake has the capacity to hold 30 billion cubic meters of water. If it is not in the flood season, the lake will hold part of the floodwater.
The video continues to show which cities will be flooded, how many people live in those cities, and how deep the water level will be in those places. So far we can see 13 cities are listed on the screen.
The flood will again disperse after entering into open areas, with some of the water being retained by the lakes.
24 hours after the Dam collapses, the flood will reach Nanjing, the capital city of Jiangsu Province, which is 1500 km, or 932 miles away from the Dam in terms of river length, and has a population of over 8 million.
The video goes on to say that after the flood enters Nanjing, it will be almost over, and the damage will not be that severe.
However, if the collapse happens in the flood season, Nanjing will also be in danger.
At the end, the video says that this video only demonstrates the situations of cities that are above the prefecture-level, which are all relatively big cities and located along the Yangtze River’s waterway. Most importantly, the model is based on the non-flood season, when major lakes still have the capacity to contain a lot of water.
Based on this model, the total affected population will be nearly 72 million.
However, the video ends by saying that if the Three Gorges Dam does unfortunately break, the chance of it happening in the flood season will be greater than 80%.
What Does the Release of Such a Video Mean? Why Now?
If you are seeing this video for the first time, I guess you are still trying to make sense of and digest all the information you just received. After this process, you might start asking: Who has made such a video? Why was it made? And why was it released now?
Well, for some Chinese observers, who have been following the flooding situations and the Dam for a long time, the following points are certain:
The video was professionally made, with a lot of professionally gathered data. It is unlikely that such a video could be “randomly” produced by some random individuals. It is more like an officially, or at least semi-officially made one.
Why was it made and released now? Please note that this video was released just one day after the CCP officials admitted that the dam had “moved, leaked, and distorted”. So could the release of the video a “soft” form of warning to the public to get them mentally prepared for the possible collapse?
Another thing to notice is that although the video says at the end that if the dam really breaks, it is highly possible that this will happen during the flooding season. However, the producer of the video chose data of the non-flooding season to establish their model. So it could be that the producer, or the persons who asked to have a video done, wanted to downplay the disastrous consequences while still giving out some kind of warnings.
How Possible Is It that the Dam Will Break?
How possible is it that the Dam will break? Among many experts who opposed the construction of the dam, Professor Huang Wanli was the most famous. He was a Chinese hydrologist and a professor at Tsinghua University. He gained his Master’s and Doctoral degrees in the US and had devoted his entire life to China’s water resources management and utilization.
Before the construction of the Three Gorges Dam started, between 1992 to 1993, Huang Wanli wrote 3 letters to the then CCP head Jiang Zemin to strongly oppose the Three Gorges project. He said, "The Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River should simply not be constructed at all. It is not a question of whether we should build it sooner or later... This project is a disaster for the country and the people. If it is built, we will eventually be forced to blow it up."
In summary, Huang Wanli predicted 12 catastrophic consequences of the Three Gorges Dam.
1. The collapse of the lower Yangtze River's dry embankment;
2. Obstruction of navigation;
3. Migration problems;
4. Siltation problems;
5. Deterioration of water quality;
6. Insufficient power generation;
7. Climatic anomalies;
8. Frequent earthquakes;
9. The spread of schistosomiasis [ˌʃɪstəsoʊ'maɪəsɪs]
10. Ecological deterioration;
11. Serious flooding for upstream;
12. An eventual blow-up of the Dam.
Huang Wanli had already passed away in 2001. Up to now, 11 out of his 12 predictions have all come true. The only one that has not come true it the prediction that the dam will be blown up.
Will it be blown up or not? Many people don’t think it will, as the CCP cares about its face more than the safety of the Dam, or the people who will be affected. The Three Gorges Dam was boasted by the CCP as a great achievement, how can it blow it up to slap its own face?
It is true that the CCP has realized that the dam is facing mounting pressure, and is becoming more and more dangerous. This can be reflected in the news titles of CCP’s propaganda about the dam over the years. Let’s check a few.
In 2003, the news title says, "The Three Gorges Dam is as strong as iron. It can withstand floods as big as once in every 10,000 years."
In 2007, the news title says: "The Three Gorges Dam can withstand floods as big as once in every thousand years."
In 2008, the title says, "The Three Gorges Dam can withstand floods as big as once in every hundred years."
In 2010, the title goes like this: "Yangtze River Conservancy Commission: We shouldn't pin all hopes on the Three Gorges Dam."
On Jul 12, 2020, it becomes: "The Three Gorges Dam has done its best, please stop blaming it!"
Then we had the video that gives us a “preview” of what could happen after the dam breaks.
Again, how possible is it that the Dam will break? My own guess is, the chance is low, as the CCP will choose to release the water, flood the downstream areas, and sacrifice the people to reduce the pressure of the dam. As a matter of fact, it has been doing so already. Why is the flooding situation so bad this year? This is one of the reasons.
For example, not long ago, on July 20, close to 200,000 homes were flooded in four villages and towns in WangJiaBa of Anhui province, after the authorities opened the dam for the 16th time. So the CCP won’t hesitate to do such a thing.
However, if earthquakes happen in the area, the safety of the dam will be a huge problem. We can only say fingers crossed that this won’t happen.
Real Tragedy
The real tragedy for ordinary people in China is, they don’t have a say with virtually anything. Actually, not only ordinary Chinese but also the so-called experts and policy advisers.
For example, from 1991 to 1997, I worked at the Technology and Economy Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council of China. It is the highest level government policy research and consultant body for the state council, and my department was especially responsible for natural resources and environmental protection policy. Therefore, we were naturally responsible for reviewing the feasibility study of the Three Gorges Dam.
What I could reveal is, all the experts in our department, including one who was a classmate of the CCP head Jiang Zemin, were strongly against the Three Gorges Dam project. We surely submitted our report of at least one inch thick.
However, nothing could stop the project from going on. Sometimes I doubted whether our report was opened or read by the leaders at all. That was one of the reasons why I eventually chose to leave the Development Research Center of the State Council because I felt my job there was useless and meaningless.
For the people who have been affected by the Dam, which was built without their consent, apart from having to suffer the consequences, they are not notified when the authorities secretly release the water. They have no access to true information to make decisions should something big happen. All they can do is to silently endure whatever is thrown to them. And sometimes, they have to thank the CCP for allowing them to live on, no matter how miserable lives can be under the CCP.
That's all for today. Thank you for watching. Please subscribe to my channel and share it!
Thank you. Stay safe and free. See you next time!
8/2/2020
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