How the Data Explains 5 Million Missing Cellphone Users in China
Hello, everyone, welcome to “Inconvenient Truths”. I am your host Jennifer Zeng.
If you have followed me on Twitter or Facebook, you might have read the news I broke last March: The number of Chinese cellphone users dropped by 21 million in the first three months of 2020. Since then people have been asking: What does that number mean? Does it represent the real death toll in China, or does it mean nothing more than people canceling their extra SIM cards due to bad financial situations?
Well, the Chinese edition of The Epoch Times (insert picture 4) did some follow up research on this matter and came to the conclusion that in 2020, altogether over 5 million cell phone users disappeared in China. Today, let me tell everyone how they obtained that number, and what lies behind it.
5.57 Million Net Loss in 2020
First of all, let’s check the numbers of three major cell phone carriers in China.
According to the figures from China mobile, it had 941.918 million mobile subscribers at the end of 2020; which is a net decrease of 8.359 million for the year. China Unicom had 305.8 million mobile subscribers at the end of 2020, which is a net decrease of 12.664 million for the year. Only China Telecom saw a net increase of 15.45 million mobile subscribers for the year, with total subscribers of 351.02 million at the end of 2020.
So, put all these numbers together, we know that in 2020, there are about 1.599 billion cell phone subscribers across China, which is a decrease of 5.57 million from 2019.
These numbers contradict the statement made by the CCP in March last year. At that time, when the news broke out that Chinese cellphone users dropped by 21 million in the first three months of 2020, Han Xia, the CCP’s Director of the Information and Communication Administration of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology once explained that the reduced number was caused by bad financial situations, and that many people had canceled their extra SIM cards during the pandemic.
He also claimed that "We believe that with the gradual recovery of economic and social activities, the number of mobile users may also grow in the future."
But the reality is, according to the numbers announced by the three major carriers, China’s mobile phone users decreased by 5.57 million from 2019.
Reasons behind the Net Loss
Now, let’s try to explore the reasons behind the net loss of mobile phone users.
Economy
We can say there are many factors that can affect the number of mobile phone users. But overall, the most important ones are the economy and the population.
According to the GDP data released by the CCP in January this year, after a 6.8% year-on-year decline in the first quarter, China's economy has gradually recovered since the second quarter, and has grown by 6.5% in the fourth quarter and 2.3% year-on-year for the whole of last year.
So, this is to say, that according to the CCP, the economy has not only recovered from the impact of the pandemic, but has also grown.
So, with the recovery of economic activity, the negative impact of the pandemic on the number of cell phone users should have been minimized, or even to the point that it could have been ignored, by the end of last year.
2. A Nationwide “Health-Code” Installed on Smartphones
In addition, in order to implement a nationwide surveillance system, the CCP has been forcing all cities to adopt a so-called “health-code” system. This “health-code” is installed on everyone’s smartphone. If you don’t have a green “health-code”, which means you don’t have the COVID19 virus, you cannot even go to school, go to work, travel, or even just to go out to do your grocery shopping.
This kind of strict policy has forced many old people and even children to buy a smartphone so that they can have a “health-code” to move around.
So, considering this nationwide “Health-Code” surveillance and control system imposed on people during the pandemic, and the fact that people’s behavior patterns have been changed as a result, the demand for cell phones should greatly increase, not decrease in 2020.
So, the point is, if the Chinese economy has already recovered from the pandemic, if the demand for cell phones has increased, we cannot explain the decrease of the users with economic factors.
3. The Population
So the only other factor to check is: the population.
According to data from the CCP’s National Bureau of Statistics, (insert picture 8), at the end of 2019, the total population of mainland China was 1.4 billion, with a natural population growth rate of 3.34 per 1,000. The number of people aged 14 years or older was 1.165 billion, an increase of 4.98 million year-on-year. At the end of 2018, the country's population aged 14 years or older was 1.160 billion, an increase of 3.55 million year-on-year.
We talk about the population of people aged 14 years or older here, because, in China, this is the main group of people who use smartphones.
CCP’s data show that China's natural population growth rate has been decreasing year by year in recent years, since 2016, which means that China as a whole is becoming older. The ratio of people over 14 vs the entire population is higher than before.
The CCP is now conducting the seventh national census starting in November last year, so as of now, there is no official population data for 2020.
However, it is possible for us to estimate the number of people over 14 years old at the end of last year based on the proportion of children aged 0-14 in the population.
According to the CCP, only 4632 people died of COVID19 last year. Such a small number wouldn’t have any impact in terms of population in China. So, if we assume that the natural population growth rate of last year is 3 per 1,000, China's population should be about 1.40425 billion at the end of 2020, an increase of about 4.2 million from the end of 2019.
If we then consider the decrease of the proportion of children under 14 years old, which is on a downward trend, at the end of 2020, there should be about 1.16863 billion people in China who are over 14 years old. This is an increase of 3.5 million more than at the end of 2019.
So, based on the population data, there should be about 3.5 million more people in China who are 14 years or older in 2020.
The Relationship between Population and Cell Phone Users
The next question is, would this increase the number of cell phone users?
According to the trend of past years, the answer is yes.
For example, at the end of 2019 and 2018, the population growth of people who are 14 years older are 4.98 million and 3.55 million year-on-year, respectively. In the meantime, the total increase of cell phone users is 61.127 million and 121.782 million in 2019 and 2018, respectively.
Therefore, if we estimate with the same ratio, the increase of 3.5 million people over 14 years old last year should have resulted in an increase of 43 million phone users if we use the data from 2019 to compare. If we use the data from 2018 to compare, the increase should be 120 million.
But the reality is, instead of an increase of tens of millions of cell phone users, we have seen a drop of over 5 million.
Therefore, we can reasonably say that the only reason for the decrease of the cell phone users is the deaths caused by the pandemic.
How Many People Have Died?
So, exactly how many people have died?
If we use the data from 2019 to calculate, an increase of 3.5 million people over 14 years old should bring an increase of 43 million phone users. But the reality is, we have lost 5.57 million. So the total difference is 43 million plus 5.57 million, which is 48.57 million.
If we use another way to do the estimation, and again use the data from 2019 to compare, which is, in 2019, one person on average owns 1.37 cell phones.
In this sense, 5.57 million mobile phone users correspond to 4.06 million people.
If we add the number of natural growth, which should be 4.2 million, the total difference is 8.26 million.
Which number is closer to the real death toll? Here I don’t want to draw any conclusion. But I have laid out the official population data and the cell phone user data, and how I made the calculations and estimations. I encourage everyone to check the original numbers and do your own calculation and estimations.
I am not sure whether we will have any chance in the future to find out the true numbers. If we do, I'm guessing they must be very, very shocking.
OK, that’s all I will say today. I will put the transcription of this show on my website at jenniferzengblog.com, that is, jenniferzengblog.com (insert pic. 9), I will also put the links to the websites where you can find the original population and cell phone users figures, so that you can do your own research if you wish. I only hope that the CCP and the phone carriers won’t change their numbers. If they do, the numbers are in the pictures of the screenshots I captured, and you can use those.
In such a time when many media outlets are not doing real journalism, and when the CCP and some other regimes and organizations are covering up the truth, we have to dig things out ourselves. So please do subscribe to, share my channel, and check out my other videos.
Thank you. See you soon!
1/29/2021 *
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