Former CCP Navy Commander: 70 Years in the Making, Never Underestimate the CCP’s Determination & Ability to “Unify Taiwan”
Hello, everyone, welcome to “Inconvenient Truths”. I am your host Jennifer Zeng.
Several days ago, President Trump’s national security adviser H.R. McMaster told the US Senate that the CCP could invade Taiwan very soon, and the most dangerous time period is from 2022 onward, after the Beijing Winter Olympics and the CCP’s twice-a-decade national congress. His statement has drawn a lot of international attention and discussions. Will the CCP really invade Taiwan? If yes, how soon? Today I’d like to share with you some insights from a true insider, a former CCP navy commander, as well as an interesting timeline unintentionally revealed by the CCP itself.
“Librating Taiwan”: A Collective Psychological Complex of More than 70 Years
First of all, how eager is the CCP, or its head Xi Jinping to invade Taiwan? Many people have been saying very eager. For example, China expert Gordon Chang recently said in an article that as Xi Jinping is seeking a third term at the CCP’s 20th National Congress in late 2022, a takeover of Taiwan would almost certainly result in an additional five-year term for Xi Jinping, so he has a lot of incentive to do so.
But a former CCP navy commander has given us a more of an insider’s perspective.
Yao Cheng is a former commander of the CCP’s Naval Command. Let’s show Picture 1. This is Yao Cheng. He had served in the CCP’s Navy for more than 20 years, 10 years of which was spent in the CCP’s South China Sea Fleet. He once participated in the battle between the CCP and Vietnam on March 14, 1988. It is called Johnson South Reef Skirmish.
Yao Cheng, former CCP navy commander
Recently he appeared on a Chinese talk show program on NTDTV , and revealed something that only an insider would know. He said that he had attended the CCP’s military schools 3 times, every time when he went to the school, not only him, but everybody there, as well as those who applied to join the party, had to go through some sort of ceremony, in which everyone must vow that they were willing to sacrifice their lives in order to “liberate Taiwan”.
So Yao Cheng said, to “liberate Taiwan” is a very deep collective psychological complex of the CCP and its soldiers. This collective psychological complex has been sitting on the CCP army’s mind for more than 70 years now. From the CCP’s first generation leader Mao Zedong, to ordinary young soldiers today, to be able to “take back” Taiwan will be the greatest honor that will last forever. So this is a very big temptation.
By the way, although the CCP never owned Taiwan, it always says “take back Taiwan” or “liberate Taiwan” as an effective way to create a narrative to make people feel as if Taiwan once belonged to the CCP.
A Much Bigger Goal than Merely “Unifying Taiwan”
Another motivation, or driving force that the outside world failed to notice or mention is the actual need for the CCP to take control of the Taiwan Strait. If the CCP can control the Taiwan Strait, it can then break through the First Island Chain, gain access to the Pacific Ocean, and break through the possible blockade or embargo of the West.
Let’s show a picture of the First Island Chain. If the CCP wants to break through the First Island Chain, there are three areas it can consider: the East China Sea, the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.
First Island Chain
Yao Cheng said, the CCP doesn't have much advantage in the East China Sea or the South China Sea, as Japan and the US have much stronger presence and military capability in those two areas.
However, if the CCP can take control of the Taiwan Strait, it can achieve this purpose just the same.
So “unifying our country” is not the only motivation for the CCP. The CCP has a much bigger goal in its mind, that is, the Pacific Ocean. If the CCP can have access to the ocean, and deploy its deep sea nuclear submarines [ˈsʌbməˌrin] into the Pacific Ocean, it can pose a real threat and deterrence to the US.
So Yao Cheng said, many overseas China experts and researchers have underestimated the CCP’s determination to take over Taiwan.
So that’s the motive.
Two Different Battles, Many Steps
How about the capability? Many people say that the CCP dares not attack Taiwan as its military power is too far away from that of the US, and it doesn’t dare to challenge the US and Taiwan.
Yao Cheng doesn’t quite agree with this.
He said, when the CCP attacks Taiwan, it will launch two different battles. Battle 1 is called the “anti-intervention campaign”. Its main purpose is to prevent the US from intervening in the CCP’s attack on Taiwan. Only Battle 2 directly targets Taiwan.
Also, the CCP’s invasion of Taiwan will not be done in one go. It is done gradually, by squeezing Taiwan’s space little by little.
For example, the CCP’s fighter jets have already crossed the middle line of the Taiwan Strait. The CCP’s next step could be to go to Penghu Islands to harass. Then it could strike at certain military facilities in Taiwan that have an impact on the mainland. It could launch the so-called surgical style strikes.
Yao Cheng said, according to what he learned, the CCP’s first target could be Taiwan’s two high-performance radars, as these radars can clearly detect the movements of most of the planes taking off and landing in China.
So the CCP will not tolerate the existence of these radars. That was also the reason why the CCP was so mad when the so-called Thaad system , which means Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system was installed in South Korea a few years ago.
Anyway, the CCP’s Battle 2 is a gradual process. It will go like this: It takes one step forward, and then pauses to see the reaction of the US. If the US doesn’t have a strong response, it will then take another step, and project more and more pressure towards Taiwan.
When Taiwan is unable to resist, or when Taiwan can't stand the pressure anymore and surrenders, the CCP will then take over. Maybe the CCP won't even need to launch actual military attacks.
Only if Taiwan doesn’t surrender, will the CCP’s troops try to forcefully land in Taiwan. That will be the last step.
So invading Taiwan is a gradual process, not something to be achieved overnight.
“Anti-Intervention Campaign”: “Saturated-Strike”
As to the Battle 1, the “anti-intervention campaign”, Yao Cheng said it is mainly about fighting America’s aircraft carriers. Yao Cheng thinks that won’t be too big of a problem for the CCP, as it can adopt the so-called “saturated-strike”.
What is a “saturated-strike”? It means that the CCP will not launch just 1 or 2 missiles. Instead, it will launch 100 missiles at the same time, all targeting the same aircraft carrier.
Yao Cheng said the CCP already has enough good quality missiles to launch this kind of “saturated-strike”.
If the CCP launches 100 missiles at the same time, it is hard to intercept them all. So there is a possibility that the US aircraft carrier will be hit, or even hit very badly.
Yao Cheng said, while the CCP doesn’t care about its own casualties or losses, the US does care. If one aircraft carrier sinks, with 5000-6000 American soldiers losing their lives, the US won’t be able to stand this kind of loss. So when facing this kind of possibility, the US may choose to back down.
Yao Cheng said, it is true that the CCP doesn’t know whether the US will get itself involved in such a war to defend Taiwan, so the CCP will try to keep on testing the Biden Administration to decide what to do next. If the US shows weakness and not enough determination, the CCP will be more aggressive.
CCP’s Secret Weapons: The Second and Third Navy
Yao Cheng said, the reason why some military experts believe that the CCP won’t dare to attack Taiwan is that they think the CCP doesn’t have enough amphibious assault ships.
Yao Cheng said, in fact, the CCP already has 74 large landing ships. It also has many ships that can transport land forces to Taiwan.
Yao Cheng said, what the outside world doesn’t know much is that apart from its regular navy, the CCP also has its second, even third navy.
The “Second Navy” refers to the marine police. They are usually under the jurisdiction of the armed police force, and their daily task is to maintain law and order at sea and to combat illegal and criminal actions at sea.
But if a war breaks out, this force can be turned into the “Second Navy” in no time.
So what is the “Third Navy”? Yao Cheng said they are Chinese fishermen. The fishermen in the 11 cities along the coast of China have hundreds of thousands of fishing boats. So when a war breaks out, all the civilian and merchant ships can be used to transport soldiers too. In the CCP’s system, that is not a problem at all.
Yao Cheng said, the CCP had actually done so before. It had used fishermen boats to transport its soldiers in its “Battle of Hainan Island” in 1950. During that battle, the CCP mobilized a total of 2,130 civilian ships called junks and over 4,000 civilian sailors to fight for the CCP. Let’s show a picture of the junks and a picture of CCP soldiers preparing to cross the strait to take over Hainan Island in 1950.
So Yao Chen said, if the CCP could do this sort of thing in 1950, it can do the same now.
People's Liberation Army preparing to cross the Qiongzhou Strait in 1950
When Could the CCP Attack Taiwan?
The next question is, when could the CCP attack Taiwan?
Yao Cheng agrees with McMaster on this matter, that is, it could happen before the CCP’s 20th National Congress in 2022.
Yao Cheng said that in order to seek a third term, Xi Jinping had gone so far as to change the constitution of China, and one of the excuses he used was the “unification of Taiwan”. If he doesn’t “unify” Taiwan, he will lose this excuse to stay in power.
So that’s looking at this issue from inside China.
If we look at the international environment, many countries have suffered very badly because of the CCP virus, or the COVID pandemic, and have lost the interest or ability to deal with the CCP now.
On the other hand, although China’s economy also suffered from the pandemic, the setback was not as bad.
Yao Cheng said, in the recent 10 years, after Xi Jinping came to power, the CCP had been building up its military capacities very aggressively. A large number of warships and various types of aircraft have been produced. So in terms of the gap between the US and Chinese forces, it may be at its smallest level now. So the CCP wouldn’t want to lose this very short time window, or the “fleeting window of opportunity”. That’s how McMaster described it at the Senate hearing.
A Road/Bridge to Taiwan
Recently, on Feb 24, the CCP released its “National comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network planning outline”.
So this is a plan of the transportation network that is to be built by 2035.
Now let’s show the map inside this plan. If you look carefully at Taiwan on the map, you will see that a yellow line, which represents one of the main roads, will be built all the way to Taiwan.
Map of National comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network planning outline, to be finished by 2035.
What does this mean? If the CCP doesn’t have sovereignty over Taiwan, how can it build a road to connect Taiwan and the mainland?
Although it is not the first time that the CCP has included Taiwan in its infrastructure plans, it has done the same thing in 2004, 2008, 2009, 2011. 2016 and 2017, however, because of the sensitivity of the situation now, people are treating this latest plan more seriously.
If the CCP really plans to have such a road built by 2035, it has to take over Taiwan by 2025 at the latest, as such a long, cross-sea road or bridge needs at least 10 years to build.
We all know that up to now, the world's longest cross sea bridge is the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge. Let’s show a picture of the bridge. It is 55 km, or 34 miles long. It took 6 years to plan it, and 9 years to build it.
If a similar road or bridge is going to be built between Taiwan and mainland China, its length would be 130 km, or 80 miles. So such a long bridge or road cannot be built in too short a time. So this could be another sign of the CCP’s determination to invade Taiwan soon.
Yao Cheng repeatedly warned that the CCP has been waiting and preparing for over 70 years to invade Taiwan. So it is very dangerous to underestimate the threat and danger that Taiwan is facing now. And the threat and danger is not only towards Taiwan. If the free world allows the CCP to occupy Taiwan, the entire world will also suffer the consequences.
A Fatal Weakness of the CCP’s Army
However, Yao Cheng said that the CCP’s army also has a fatal weakness, that is, the soldiers may not necessarily want to fight and die for the CCP. Recently the CCP just raised the soldiers’ salaries by 40%. This means that the CCP wanted to buy the soldiers’ hearts and lives with money.
But in the meantime, the CCP doesn’t trust the soldiers at all. Up to now, the CCP’s army PLA is still adopting a so-called “Separation of Gun and Bullet” system in the army.
What does that mean? Yao Cheng said it means that the guns and bullets are locked inside different iron cabinets. The windows and doors of the rooms are all iron too. The company commander and the instructor each hold a key. One has the key to the guns, another person has the key to the bullets. So the storage and management of the guns and bullets are separated
So that is to say, the CCP doesn’t trust the soldiers and has set up a system in which the soldiers are on guard against one another. No one is to be trusted.
So when the war breaks out, will the CCP be able to control everything when both guns and bullets are in the hands of the soldiers? Who can the CCP really trust? That would be a huge problem for the CCP.
Yao Cheng said, if people in Taiwan hold a banner which says, “PLA soldiers, put down your guns, and here is your path to the free world”, maybe half of the soldiers would put down their guns and seek to surrender to the free world.
Well, that’s quite interesting too, right? Remember, this is from a 20 year CCP veteran.
OK, that’s all for today. Please don’t forget to subscribe to my channel and turn on the notification bell. Some people told me they didn’t receive any notifications even when they turned the bell on. So maybe a better idea is to save the link to my channel in your bookmarks and check it regularly.
Thank you very much. Let’s pray that nothing bad will happen to Taiwan, and let’s pray that the free world will have the guts to stand up against the CCP.
Thank you, see you soon!
3/6/2021 *
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