100th Anniversary of the CCP: The Biggest Fear and How Long Can It Still Last?
Hello, everyone, welcome to “Inconvenient Truths”. I am your host Jennifer Zeng.
Today is the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party, the CCP. A few days ago I received an interview request from a journalist in Poland, asking me "What does the CCP’s rule mean for Chinese people?” So today I’d like to talk about this, as well as some highlights of this morning’s celebration at Tiananmen Square, and another very important question: “How much longer can the CCP still exist?”
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Highlights of the Centennial Celebration
Now, let’s move on to our topics today.
First of all, let me give you a few highlights from the CCP’s celebrations.
（1）A One-Man Show of Xi Jinping
First of all, it is a one-man show of Xi Jinping.
Let’s watch the screenshot of today’s headline flashes at Xinhua's website. We are playing it 4 times faster just to let you get an idea how everything is about Xi Jinping.
Everything is arranged to achieve this purpose too, even including the outfits. Let’s see a few pictures. While everyone else wears a suit, or Western style suit, only Xi Jinping wears something called Chinese tunic suit , which is also called the Zhongshan suit, or Mao Suit. It remained the standard formal dress for the first and second generations of CCP leaders, and is a symbol of national sovereignty.
Only Xi wears Mao Suit.
Only Xi wears Mao Suit.
Only Xi wears Mao Suit.
（2）Warning Messages to “Foreign Powers”
The second highlight is Xi Jinping’s warning messages to “foreign powers”. In his more than an hour long speech, apart from repeating how the CCP was the choice of history and the Chinese people, and shouting out loudly “Long live the great, glorious and always correct CCP” at the end, Xi Jinping sends clear warning messages to “foreign powers”.
Let’s watch a short clip of his speech.
Xi Jinping: “ The Chinese people will not allow any foreign power to bully, oppress, or enslave us. Anyone who tries to do so will have their heads smashed and shed blood in front of the Great Wall of Steel built with the flesh & blood of more than 1.4B Chinese people.
(3) Blood Hunger, Cultural Revolution 2.0 and North Korea
The third highlight is the overall visual design of the celebrations. Let’s see a few pictures.
From the visual impressions, we can see the blood hunger of the CCP, as well as the fact that China is having a Cultural Revolution 2.0; China is more and more like North Korea.
When I saw thousands upon thousands of people waving the CCP’s red flags, I really thought I was watching something from the Cultural Revolution, or North Korea.
(4) Jiang Zemin, Zhu Rongji and Many Other Important Figures Absent
The fourth highlight is, as many as 8 former CCP members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau were absent from the art performance held at the National Stadium in Beijing.
Another strange thing is, the CCP suddenly changed the date of the performance from June 29 to June 28, without explaining why.
And again, at today's ceremony at Tiananmen Square, CCP’s third generation head Jiang Zemin, as well as former premier Zhu Rongji were absent. This is very unusual given this is such an important event for the CCP.
Therefore, people have been speculating that the internal power struggle within the CCP must still be very fierce, to the point that many former leaders chose to boycott Xi Jinping’s one-man show.
(5) 70,000 People Required to Take Off Their Masks
The fifth highlight is, 70,000 people who attended the celebration, including media workers, were required to TAKE OFF their masks so that they looked better. So do you think the CCP really cares about people’s lives?
Tight Security Ahead of Centennial Celebration
Well, the above are a few highlights from today’s event.
Now, let’s see how ridiculously tight the security has been in Beijing and China before the ceremony.
The following are just some of the measures:
(1) Kitchen Knives Under Control
In Beijing, even kitchen knives are under restrictions until tomorrow (July 2).
A knife store associate told the Epoch Times that restrictions are imposed on the purchase of knives, you must bring your ID card to the store to buy a knife, and the sales need to be registered; and the registration information will be handed over to the police department for the record. And this applies to all stores in Beijing.
Also, even if the purchase is registered and approved, you cannot take the knives away. They will be mailed to you, but only after July 2 .
(2) Ban on All Flying Objects
Also, the Beijing Government issued a flying ban from June 13 to today (July 1). Nine districts, a very large area, were designated as “restricted flying zones.” All flying objects, including doves, drones, model airplanes, kites and balloons, are all prohibited.
And you know what? When I wrote about this for the Epoch Times a while ago, an editor asked me, “Seriously? How would they control birds?”
And I replied, “Yes, in Beijing, doves are all raised and kept by human beings. If their masters don’t release them, they stay in their cages.”
(3) An Off-the-Track Story
This actually reminds me of another similar story. Many years ago, after I submitted my memoir to my publisher, Allen & Unwin, a leading publisher in Australia, they asked an editor to edit it. When the editor saw such a sentence in my memoir, “In 1981, I moved to Mianyang with my father”, she immediately crossed out “my father”, and changed it to “my parents”.
She thought, if a family moved from one city to another, of course the entire family moved together. So she took it for granted that I made a mistake with my word selection, as I was a Chinese.
I had to tell her, no, I moved with my father. My mother and sister didn’t move together with us, as in China, everything needed permission. My mother didn’t have permission to move. So she stayed. It took her more than 4 years to get permission to join my father. And when she finally moved to my father’s city too, I had already left my hometown for university.
Actually, in my childhood and youth period, there were only a very few years when my entire family lived together.
So you see, that’s how life and things are different in CCP’s China. For people in the West, many things can be taken for granted. But for people in CCP’s China, they may never dare to imagine those things, or they may even die before they can get these things. Or they don’t know at all that they don’t have those things, such as the freedom to move within your own country.
Sorry, this is a little bit off the track. Anyway, I’ve written a short article about this experience. I will put the link to that article in the transcript that I am going to publish on my website at jenniferzengblog.com. If you are interested, please go to my website later to find that article.
(4) Shops Closed
Now, let’s go back to the tight control on Beijing.
Not only that doves cannot fly, but shops near Tiananmen Square were forced to close down on June 30 and July 1, for two days for the celebration.
One shop associate said that government people locked the gate of their shop directly and took away the key.
Even in a county called Xianghe (香河县), which is more than 30 miles away, street vendors were not allowed to do their businesses during the celebration.
(5) Natural Gas Supply Cut Off
Netizens also revealed that even natural gas supply was cut off in Donghuamen area, which is very close to Tiananmen. The CCP fears that natural gas could cause fires.
So how can people cook without natural gas supply?
Don’t worry, the CCP has you covered. The community will deliver ready food to residents in this area until July 4, when the natural gas supply is resumed.
In another area called Hepingmen, the authorities are giving food vouchers to people who are affected by the cut of the gas supply.
(6) Manhole Covers Welded
Now let's see a picture. Can you figure out what this is? Well, this is a manhole cover near Tiananmen, which is welded with small pieces of some kind of material. The two Chinese characters on the pieces say “Security Inspection”.
Manhole cover welded.
Why did they weld the manhole covers? Well, I guess to prevent people from getting to the Tiananmen Square area, where the celebration was to be held, through the sewage system. Sometimes we see that sort of scene from movies, right? People escape or enter somewhere through the sewage system. So the manhole covers had to be welded.
(7) Metals Banned in Posted Packages
Posted packages are under tight control too. Let's see a picture.This is a message saying that as the 100th anniversary of the CCP was approaching, all packages delivered to Beijing would be strictly controlled. Extra checking would be conducted. Any metal martial in books, including staples in magazines need to be removed.
The message says, we are sorry for this, but you’ll need to re-bind your books and magazines after you receive them.
Well, these are just some of the crazy security measures in Beijing
(8) Soldiers & Military Dogs On Duty
Let’s watch a short clip shot in Beijing a few days ago. I had lived in Beijing for 17 years. I had never seen so many police and military dogs on the street, actually, never any dogs at all when I lived there in the 1980s and 1990s.
(9) Dissidents Arrested
As a matter of fact, before the anniversary of the Tiananmen Massacre this year, which was June 4, the CCP already started cracking down on dissidents. Quite a few got arrested, such as Zhang Wuzhou and Wang Aizhong in Guangzhou city, Chen Siming in Hunan Province, and Yang Shaozheng in Guizhou.
“Historical Nihilism” Condemned
So this is what has been happening in the real world. In academic and theoretical circles, or maybe we should say the propaganda circle, the CCP has been trying very hard to convince people how great it is, and to attack anyone who wants to criticize it.
And they have come up with a term called “historical nihilism”. 2 million online posts were deleted for being “historical nihilism”.
The CCP’s logic is, if you don’t recognize that the CCP is the great savior of China and Chinese people, you are practicing “historical nihilism”, and you are wrong and should be condemned.
The CCP’s Biggest Fear
As far as I can see, both what happened in the real world and the propaganda circle reflect the same issue, the CCP’s biggest fear is its own legitimacy. After 100 years, the CCP is still trying very hard to convince people that it is the “choice” of history and the people.
It says it is the choice of history and the people, but it never dares to allow people to vote. Without a referendum, how can you say you are chosen by the people?
How Much Longer Can the CCP Still Exist?
Now, let’s move to our next topic: How long can the CCP still exist?
Recently quite a few overseas Chinese dissidents are showing optimism that the CCP won’t last long. Former CCP navy commander Yao Cheng, whom we quoted before, even said that he wouldn’t buy a property in the US, as the CCP would collapse within several years, and that he would be able to go back to China soon.
We must say that the international environment for the CCP is worsening now. More and more countries are talking about holding the CCP accountable for the pandemic, and the global anti-CCP sentiment is still rising.
In a sense, the CCP’s international environment has never been as bad as it is now. Before the CCP took power, it had the support of the former Soviet Union and had some allies in the international communist camp.
Then, during the 10 years after the CCP’s relationship with the Soviet Union turned sour around 1963, its environment was quite severe. But at that time, it could still try to find a space to survive when the US and the Soviet Union were fighting against each other.
Later on, US president Nixon extended an olive branch to the CCP. At that time, the West viewed the CCP as a force that could assist the fight against the Soviet Union.
Because of this, the CCP was able to survive even though it had brought the nation’s economy to the very verge of collapse. That was also the reason why the CCP could survive until now.
So, the international environment is very important for the CCP. Some people argue that the CCP can choose to cut ties and close its doors to the outside world again, and just have the so-called “internal circulation”, like what Mao Zedong did in the 1950s and 1960s.
However, time has changed. The CCP couldn’t do what it had done before. In 1949, when the CCP established its regime, there was only about a 10% urban population. Right now, the urban population has exceeded 60%. Once China decouples from the world's industrial chain, unemployment and the associated crises would be many times more severe than in the Mao era.
Even Mao’s “internal circulation” was unable to last for more than 10 years. Only 7 or 8 years after the CCP cut ties with Soviet Union, Mao Zedong was forced to turn to the US, which the CCP had been attacking for over 20 years.
Today Xi Jinping’s ability to carry on alone without the world wouldn’t be higher than that of Mao Zedong.
So how long can the CCP still exist?
In terms of the external environment, this year and the next year, more and more countries will continue to try to hold the CCP accountable for the pandemic, and seek compensation. Something dramatic could happen during this process.
In terms of the CCP’s internal environment, 2021-2023 will be the peak for China's local governments to repay their debts. The real estate industry will also meet its peak for debt repayments during the same period of time. So the CCP could face both financial and fiscal crises. And that could cause a lot of uncertainty for the CCP too.
Also, Xi Jinping might seek to become the chairman of the CCP and stay in power forever in the 20th National Congress of the CCP, which will be held next year. And the new CCP leadership will officially take office in March 2023.
Also in 2023, several major U.S. arms sales to Taiwan will begin to be delivered. With this, the military power gap between Taiwan and the CCP’s China will narrow.
So, will Xi Jinping try to grasp the narrow window between now and then to invade Taiwan? Whether he intends to do so or not, he did vow that the CCP would “unify” Taiwan” in his speech this morning. So this will also bring some uncertainty to the situation.
So, with the combination of the several factors we just mentioned, the peak of pressure on the CCP will occur in the period from now to 2023.
And among all the factors, the most unpredictable one is the pandemic. It could also be the most overwhelming one.
The CCP virus is still spreading and mutating, while the Chinese vaccines are not very effective.
If China is hit again by some new mutations, it can become a catastrophic black swan event, and things can also go out of control very quickly.
What Does the Rule of the CCP Mean for Chinese People?
Now, in conclusion, "What does the CCP’s rule mean for Chinese people?”
My reply is, “For Chinese people, the rule of CCP means mass killing, endless ‘class struggles’, deprivation of wealth, human dignity, souls and freedom, and destruction of moral values, as well as the natural, cultural and human environment suitable for human beings’ existence. No other regime has killed so many lives, and destroyed its own culture and environment to such an extent. The nation and people are doomed if the CCP cannot be ended.”
Well, that’s all for today’s “Inconvenient Truths”. Thank you very much for watching. Again, please remember to subscribe to my channel, like and share my videos, and leave us some comments.
See you on Monday!
7/1/2021
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