Why Are Polls Inaccurate? My Non-Professional Answer

It’s said that many experts are using various “professional” methods to analyze why polls don’t work well in U.S. elections. They have plenty of theories and explanations.

To me, the reason is simple: the extent of “political correctness” in society has become so severe that many Trump supporters are afraid to speak out. They don’t dare to say they support Trump because the consequences might be too serious.

Here’s an example. In 2022, I shared an article from my website with someone I met online, someone I didn’t know before. After reading it, he cautiously asked, “Do you support Trump?”

I was very puzzled as to why he would ask such a question because my article was about my daughter, this one, which has nothing to do with US politics.

So I asked him, "Why do you ask this?"

He said, "Because I saw a Trump ad on your website."

I thought: Trump didn’t pay to advertise on my site, nor did I place any ads for him. Why did he say that?

After pondering for a long time, I finally understood: he must have seen an ad placed by Google because at that time I allowed Google to place ads on my website. As for what ads were shown, Google decides based on different users.

So I realized: this person must support Trump, frequently viewing Trump-related content online, and Google, knowing his preferences, showed him Trump ads.

So, I then admitted to him: Yes, I support Trump.

Only then did he admit that he also supports Trump.

Until I was sure he shared my views, I didn’t dare to openly admit I was a Trump supporter, because I didn’t know if he would react negatively. Statistically, it’s more likely that a random person you meet online wouldn’t support Trump.

This is the atmosphere of American society in 2022. Those “high and mighty” in the “politically correct” camp can hardly understand the fear of this “small group” labeled as “politically incorrect.”

So, how could polls possibly be accurate?

So, how severe is the illness afflicting American society?

11/8/2024 **

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