A New “NATO” to Counter the CCP & Can KMT Take Back Mainland China?
Hello, everyone! Welcome to “Inconvenient Truths”. I am your host Jennifer Zeng.
Today I’ll talk about two events and their significance. One is the Quad meeting in Tokyo, which was said to be the starting point of the formation of a new, Asian version of NATO. Another is that, as I predicted, two resolutions have just been passed in Taiwan, one is to seek to resume diplomatic relations with the U.S., and another is to "request the U.S. to help resist the CCP."
A New “NATO” to Counter the CCP
On October 6, during US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Japan, foreign ministers of the “Quad” countries: the US, Japan, India, and Australia held a meeting and “united in their determination” to counter the CCP’s “increasing assertiveness in the region.”
Pompeo clearly expressed on Japanese television that the mission of the “Quad” group was not just about "a rivalry between the United States and China." "This is for the soul of the world, whether this will be a world that operates (as) a rules-based international order system, or one that's dominated by a coercive totalitarian regime like the one in China."
While English media reported this event in a somewhat “business as usual” manner, many overseas Chinese commentators immediately realized that this was a very significant move and that a new, Asian version of NATO is being formed to counter the CCP.
According to Chinese commentator Tang Jingyuan, the significance manifests in the following 5 aspects. He called it “killing 5 birds with one stone.”
A Strategic Initiative at the Military Level
This is a major strategic initiative at the military level.
We all know that NATO is an intergovernmental military alliance. The idea of establishing a mini Asian NATO was first raised by Japan's former Prime Minister Abe in 2007, when he gave a speech at India's parliament, he proposed a “Democratic Alliance of Four Nations” which included Japan, The US, Australia, and India. But this proposal didn’t go very far until 10 years later when the Trump Administration started seeing the CCP as a strategic opponent instead of a partner.
In September of this year, U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper clearly expressed that a collective security alliance in the Indo-Pacific region was needed and that NATO was a good example of collective security and cooperation among allies and partners.
From this, we can see that the Quad was an initiative at the military level in the first place, and more countries in the region can also be included in the future.
Japan’s Role
2. Japan’s Role. Although the US is the leading country of the Quad, Japan’s role in it is extremely important. Why? Because of Japan’s geographical location. The Miyako Strait or Kerama Gap near Japan is one of the only two entryways for the CCP’s air force and Navy into the Pacific Ocean. If this Strait, as well as the Bashi Channel between the Philippines and Taiwan, are blocked, the CCP’s strategic nuclear submarine cannot enter the Pacific Ocean, or become a real threat to other countries. In this sense, the CCP’s nuclear submarines will be crippled.
Eliminating the CCP’s Unique Advantage with Intermediate-range Missiles
3. The CCP will lose its unique advantage with intermediate-range missiles. Although the CCP often boasts about its military power, people know that in terms of conventional weapons, the CCP’s People’s Liberation Army, PLA, is several generations behind the US military.
However, there is one area that the PLA does have unique advantages; and that area is with its intermediate-range missiles.
We all know that the US and the former Soviet Union signed The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 1987. This treaty banned all of the two nations' land-based short medium-range and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and missile launchers.
However, the CCP was not included in the treaty, so it has been able to develop as many missiles as it likes. So now the CCP has the most missiles in the world, much, much more than the US and Russia.
The CCP has never revealed exactly how many missiles it has, but both the US and Russia believe that it has more than 2000 intermediate-range missiles. So this is the unique military advantage of the CCP.
Although the US withdrew from the treaty in 2018, it is impossible for it to catch up with the CCP in such a short period of time. More importantly, even if it does catch up, in terms of the number of missiles, it still needs suitable locations to deploy the missiles.
So, after the formation of this new, Asian version of “NATO”, the US can not only deploy missiles in Japan but also in South Korea and the Philippines if these countries join the alliance later.
Furthermore, as a founding member of this new “NATO”, India has its own powerful intercontinental ballistic missiles. The Agni-V missile has a range of up to 5000 km, which means it can cover the entirety of China.
This is to say, by forming this alliance, the US can “offset” the CCP’s huge strategic advantage in this regard in a very short period of time. The CCP has worked hard to build up this advantage for the past 30 years but could lose it very soon.
A Two-Front War
4. The 4th significance is that the CCP would be forced to fight a two-front war should war break out. If we check the map, we can see the so-called First Island Chain forms a semi-circle at China’s east side. This area now has the military presence of the US, Australia, and Japan.
And India is on China’s west side. The main issue that was discussed at the Quad meeting on Oct 6 was about the regional security in the East and the South China Sea, which seems to have nothing to do with India.
However, India’s participation brings a strategic and potential threat to the CCP, as India can have a tremendous restraining effect on land against the CCP.
We all know one of the most fatal reasons for the defeat of Nazi Germany during World War II was that it fought on both the eastern and western fronts at the same time. It had to deal with both the Allies and the Soviet Union's military forces at the same time.
So, in the future, the CCP could face the same kind of situation. If India decides to give up its past non-alignment stance and joins the newly formed mini “NATO”, it would become a huge restraining force for the CCP if the CCP creates any conflicts in the East & South China Sea, as well as in the Taiwan Strait area.
Talking about this, we have to say that Xi Jinping is indeed the “Chief Accelerator” for the demise of the CCP. India has kept its non-alignment position for decades, but the recent standoff at the Sino-India border that killed 20 Indian soldiers has really angered the Indian people, and the anger of the public may well change India’s non-alignment position. The fact that India participated in this Quad meeting has already been an indication of that.
In the meantime, Japan is also considering making a major change to its defense policy by developing a first-strike capability on enemy bases to defend against imminent attacks.
We can say all these huge strategic changes are made to tackle the CCP’s threat, which goes beyond the mere material interests of different countries. The CCP’s threat is a direct one to the very values and universal principles of the free world, and therefore cannot be allowed to exist.
Taiwan: Winning without Fighting
5. The 5th significance of the new alliance is that it will offer an extra layer of protection and support for Taiwan, and greatly reduce the possibility of the CCP’s invasion of Taiwan.
There is a very famous military philosophy in the ancient Chinese classical book “The Art of War” by Sun Tzu: “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
So, we can say that “winning without fighting” could also be achieved through forming this new Asian version of “NATO”.
KMT’s “Radical” Move and its Possible, Bright Future
Next, let’s move to our second topic for today.
Also on Oct 6, the Council of Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan passed two resolutions proposed by the Kuomintang (KMT) party, calling for U.S. military aid and the resumption of diplomatic relations between the United States and Taiwan in order to counter the CCP’s aggression.
This news was not a surprise given the recent quick heating up of U.S.-Taiwan relations. However, it is, at the same time, also a little surprising because the proposals came from the Kuomintang party itself, which has been seen as being very close to the CCP in recent years.
Perhaps that is also the reason why the CCP felt very awkward about the resolutions. If such proposals were from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, the CCP would have made a big fuss about it.
Why did the usually pro-CCP Kuomintang suddenly introduce these two resolutions? Maybe this is a very meaningful question to ask.
As far as I can see, this again reflects the fact that the CCP, not US Secretary of State Pompeo, has indeed become the “Enemy of Mankind”, and that’s why even the pro-CCP Kuomingtang has started to fight back.
In January of this year, during Taiwan’s presidential election, the Kuomintang party lost bitterly because of its more pro-CCP stance. What the CCP did to Hong Kong afterward again pushed the people of Taiwan further away from the CCP, since people saw that by imposing the so-called National Security Law in Hong Kong, the CCP had completely destroyed Hong Kong’s freedom, and fighting back against the CCP has become a mainstream international trend.
I think this is why the Kuomintang has raised these two seemingly “radical” resolutions now.
On my last show, I responded to a few of a viewer’s questions. That viewer also asked what kind of political system would follow if the CCP collapsed and whether Chinese people would be able to manage themselves after the CCP is gone.
Well, I think I’ve already laid out one possibility when I jokingly used the short title “Who Liberates Who?” in another show where I discussed the relationships between the US, China, and Taiwan.
Well, what I want to say is, if the Kuomintang can expand its vision and mind, and be reminded one more time of its leader Chiang Kai-shek’s unrealized dream of taking back Mainland China, this may contribute a lot, or perhaps indeed open the door to its taking back Mainland China.
Many Chinese people have been hoping that the flag of the Republic of China can once again be raised in Mainland China and that China can be re-united again with democracy.
If the KMT party can start working secretly on recruiting members in Mainland China and promoting democratic ideas now, after the CCP collapses, which could happen very soon, it can go back to China, recruit more members and run for election. With its past experiences of once governing Taiwan, it is quite possible that it could win. Isn’t it?
So, the only question to ask the KMT is: can you think and act even bigger?
By the way, October 1oth is the National Day of the Republic of China and the 109th anniversary of its founding. I heard that the CCP had “advised” Indian media not to publish content related to this. But as we are not Indian media, so maybe we are allowed to say here: “Happy Birthday to the great Republic of China! Happy Birthday to Taiwan!”
Well, that’s all for today. I think you can see that the issues we discuss are really huge and important. So please do subscribe to and share my channel, and check out my other videos you may have missed.
Thank you. See you soon!
10/11/2020
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