“Taking Back Mainland China Easier Than Seeking Taiwan Independence”
Hello, everyone! Welcome to “Inconvenient Truths by Jennifer Zeng”.
Since I talked about the fast-changing relationships among the US, China, and Taiwan, many new significant events have happened in the past few days. People are asking: What’s next? Will the US resume formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan? What did Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen mean by “Taiwan is determined to take a crucial step” when she met US Under Secretary of State Keith Krach in Taiwan? What is the significance of Ms. Bi-khim Hsiao changing her title from “Representative of Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office ” to “Ambassador to the US”? Will the CCP attack Taiwan as promised if Taiwan does “take a crucial step” that crosses the CCP’s “red line”? Is it easier for Taiwan to take back Mainland China than seeking independence? Today, let’s discuss these important issues.
A Series of Major Events
First of all, subscribe to my channel now so that you get my regular updates.
Second, let’s check some of the major events in the past few days.
On Sep 16, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft had lunch with James Lee, Taiwan’s top official in New York. Kelly Craft called this meeting “historic” and a further step in the Trump administration’s campaign to strengthen relations with Taiwan.
On Sep 17-19, US Under Secretary of State Keith Krach visited Taiwan. This is a visit by the highest US official in more than four decades and happened just about one month after another high level US official, Alex Azar’s visit.
Compared to Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar’s visit, the purpose of Krach’s visit was kept fairly vague. Nothing very specific was announced or mentioned.
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen hosted a banquet for Krach on Sep 18 and said that “Taiwan is determined to take a crucial step” at the banquet without specifying what the “crucial step” was.
Then, one day after Krach’s visit to Taiwan, Ms. Bi-khim Hsiao changed her title on her Twitter account from “Representative of Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office” to “Ambassador to the US”.
Prior and after Krach’s visit to Taiwan, from Sep 16 up to now, the CCP’s fighter jets, bombers, and antisubmarine patrol craft entered Taiwan’s air-defence identification zone from multiple directions for multiple times, and the CCP’s media used such a title when talking about Krach’s visit: “It's heroin but Taiwan treats it like a cure.”
On Sep 19, the CCP’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force released a video that showed nuclear-capable bombers attacking what appeared to be U.S.’s Andersen Air Force Base in Guam.
In the meantime, on Sep 22, the defence ministry of Taiwan made major changes to its military’s combat readiness regulations, allowing forces to fire back in self-defence. This means that Taiwan’s military does not have to abide by its previous rule of not firing the first shot. Under the changed regulations, Taiwanese forces on the front line will be able to fire the first shot if they determine that the enemy intends to attack.
Crossing the CCP’s Red Line
Well, what I just mentioned was a very quick summary of what happened in just a few days. Now let’s do a little bit of analyses.
Why did Kelly Craft call her meeting with James Lee “historical”? Because it is indeed historical. The CCP has been very tough on its “One China Principle”, and anyone, or any country who dared to challenge this would surely trigger a very aggressive and “angry” response from the CCP. So people have been very careful not to cross this red line of the CCP’s.
I am not sure whether you still remember, that as recently as two years ago, US airlines including American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and some others were forced by the CCP to remove “Taiwan” from their websites? According to the CCP, American airlines couldn’t display a country label for Taiwan, or show the word “Taiwan” in their booking systems. As independent big companies in the US, these airlines submitted to the CCP’s pressure and did remove “Taiwan” from their websites.
But now, 2 years later, the US is showing the CCP that it doesn’t care about the CCP’s red lines anymore.
Getting Taiwan Back to the UN?
Furthermore, the fact that the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations was meeting Taiwan’s top official in New York indicates that the US could be seeking to help Taiwan return to the UN.
Gary Cowan, Representative at the Australian Office in Taipei, expressed his support to Taiwan in a tweet on Sep 21, saying that “We welcome Taiwan's continued contributions to promoting the Sustainable Development Goals and developing universal health coverage.”
Swazi Prime Minister Ambrose Dlamini also voiced support for Taiwan’s UN membership at the 75th secession of the UN General Assembly.
What is Taiwan’s “Crucial Step”?
Then what about Tsai Ing-wen’s expression that “Taiwan is determined to take a crucial step”?
This statement of hers has sparked a lot of speculations, as well as threats from the CCP. Many overseas Chinese commentators said that this means that Taiwan is ready to establish, or rather, resume formal diplomatic relations with the US if the US calls the shot.
The fact that Ms. Bi-khim Hsiao changed her title from “Representative” to “Ambassador to the US” also gives a strong indication that things could move towards this direction. Although Bi-khim Hsiao explained later that “Taiwan Ambassador is what many call me and also my job description. My title remains Representative... when engaging with the US government”, the fact that she changed it on the next day of Krach’s visit still made people believe that there is already some kind of understanding reached between Taiwan and the US.
Otherwise, it is impossible that as the top diplomat, Hsiao would have changed her title out of some sudden whimsy.
If she had changed it because “Taiwan Ambassador” is her “job description”, she had been doing this job for quite a while now, why the sudden change now?
What’s more interesting is Tsai Ing-wen’s response to the title change. When asked about this very sensitive matter, Tsai Ing-wen said that Bi-khim Hsiao has been working very hard to strengthen the relations between the U.S. and Taiwan and that she believed that Hsiao will continue to do so no matter what title she carries.
Please note that Tsai Ing-wen didn’t say that Hsiao should not change her title, but praised her for her “hard work” instead. So we can view this as Tsai Ing-wen’s support for Hsiao’s changing of her title.
Will the CCP Use Force Against Taiwan?
Now, the question is, if the US and Taiwan really resume formal diplomatic relations, how will the CCP react? Will it use force against Taiwan as they have been threatening all the time?
Many overseas Chinese commentators are saying that the CCP dares not to attack Taiwan, as Taiwan’s military capability is strong enough to deter the CCP. Plus, the US will not let the CCP invade Taiwan without intervention. If the US intervenes, there is no chance that the CCP’s army can win.
Faking the Propaganda Video with Hollywood Movies
We mentioned that CCP’s PLA released a video showing bombers attacking what looks like the U.S.’s Air Force Base in Guam. That video portrays PLA’s airforce as a formidable and powerful army. However, netizens found that the CCP actually used clips from Hollywood movies in its video that was supposed to be displaying the real scenes and the real power of the CCP’s air force.
For example, this clip was taken from the Hollywood movie “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” in 2009. This clip was taken from The Rock in 1996, and this clip was taken from the Hurt Locker in 2008.
So, for a 2-minute propaganda video, the PLA had to use clips from three Hollywood movies to show its marvels. So how will such an army perform in a real war? People do question this.
A Difficult and Awkward Position for the CCP
Some people also say that if Taiwan does resume its formal diplomatic relations with the US, that will put the CCP and Xi Jinping in a very difficult and awkward position.
If they declare war against Taiwan, the result could be the end for the CCP, because that would offer the US a perfect ground to strike off the CCP.
If the CCP and Xi Jinping don’t declare war against Taiwan, what can they say to their own people to save their face? For all these years, “liberating Taiwan” has been portrayed as a “sacred” mission for China, how can the CCP back off from it?
Options for the US
Now, another very important question is: How will the US and Taiwan handle their relations with the CCP afterwards?
For the US, it has several options:
Continue to adopt its “One China” policy, but regard Taiwan, or the Republic of China, as the legitimate “China”, while regard the CCP’s regime as an illegal one, and help the Republic of China to take back Mainland China.
Abandon its “One China” policy, and treat both Taiwan and the CCP’s China as independent countries.
Maintain its “One China” policy, recognize Taiwan and the CCP’s China at the same time without defining who is “China”.
Maintain its “One China” policy, and try to promote a federal system, in which Mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao can all remain independent and autonomous.
“Taking Back Mainland China Easier than Seeking Taiwan Independence”
And what are Taiwan’s options? Instead of listing all the possibilities, I’d rather talk about one comment from an unknown Chinese netizen that impressed me very much.
I saw this comment more than 10 years ago when the Taiwanese President was still Chen Shui-bian. And this comment was: “Why does Taiwan bother to seek independence? Taking back Mainland China will be so much easier!”
Why was I extremely impressed by this comment? Because:
It reflected the wish of many Chinese people in Mainland China. They hope that the Republic of China can “liberate” mainland China which is occupied by the CCP.
If we think hard, we will find that this seemingly careless comment contains great wisdom. The Republic of China represented now by Taiwan was the legitimate government of China in the first place. It was the CCP that founded an illegal Communist regime within China, and overturned the legitimate government of the KMT with all sorts of despicable, and even evil means.
For example, in the so-called Siege of Changchun in 1948, when the CCP tried to seize the city of Changchun from the KMT, the CCP prevented the civilians from leaving the city to exhaust the food supply of the KMT defenders.
As a result, as many as 150,000, some say 300,000, civilians were starved to death. That’s just one of the evil means the CCP used to defeat the KMT. The world should not have recognized this kind of “victory” and this kind of killing regime in the first place.
Furthermore, for many Chinese people in Mainland China, emotionally, it is easier for them to accept a “united China” ruled by a democratic government than to accept a “fragmented China” that is divided into different countries.
The Republic of China was once proudly the first democratic republic in Asia, and one of the founding members of the UN. It remains a vibrant, prosperous, and benign democracy today that can join forces with the free world to fight against the CCP’s evil and aggressive expansion. It is fully legitimate for the Republic of China to reclaim sovereignty of Mainland China, and the US, as well as the free world, owe Taiwan a lot when they recognized the CCP’s regime and agreed to have Taiwan driven out of the United Nations.
The last question is, is Taiwan ready? For me, this is the real “critical step” for Taiwan to take. Although it might sound very astonishing and challenging on the surface, it may turn out to be so much easier than seeking independence, as that unknown Chinese netizen had said many years ago.
OK, that’s all for today. Truth, no matter how inconvenient, does save lives. Please do subscribe to and share my channel, leave a comment about what you think about what we discussed today, and check out my other videos you may have missed.
Thank you, see you soon!
9/23/2020
***************
Truth Saves Lives. Subscribe and support! 真相能救命。請支持！
Subscribestar 會員頻道： https://bit.ly/3fEzeJB
YouTube 油管：bit.ly/3b87DPj
GoFundme 衆籌：https://bit.ly/2zx6LVw
Patreon 網站：https://bit.ly/3cvBy3H
Paypal 捐款：http://paypal.me/JenniferZeng97
