The CCP’s 5th Plenary Session & What if the CCP Attacks Taiwan or the US?
Hello, everyone! Welcome to “Inconvenient Truths”. I am your host Jennifer Zeng.
Today I will discuss two topics, one is the CCP’s “closed-door” “Fifth Plenary Session”: What could be happening and what could be the consequences. Another one is old but also new: Will the CCP attack Taiwan or the US? If yes, under what circumstance? And what will happen if it does?
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A One-Sentence Report on A Closed-Door Session
On Oct 26, the much-anticipated Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the CCP was held in Beijing. However, the CCP’s official mouthpiece Xinhua only published a one-sentence report to announce that the session was on and that XiJinping had delivered a report and explained the proposal of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Vision 2035 Goals. No photos, videos, or any content of his speech were released, making people wonder what was really going on.
The usual rule is that the CCP does not announce anything until after the 4-day session is over on Oct 29 when all the important issues have been discussed and finalized.
Xi Jinping’s Successor, or No Successor?
What are the important issues for this session?
One, is to decide whether there is going to be a successor for Xi Jinping, if yes, who is this person? Another one is to lay out the development plan for the next five years.
As Xi Jinping is seeking re-election, actually, he is seeking to be in power for life, it is highly possible that no successor will be announced.
Failed 13th 5-year Plan
As to the 14th 5-year plan, we need to understand that this 5-year plan system was left over by the former Soviet Union as part of the planned economy. How can a few people create a 5-year plan that can actually work in the real world where everything changes so fast with so many complicated factors involved?
So, after the CCP adopted its so-called “reforms and opening-up” to the outside world policy, the 5-year plans have become more of a guideline instead.
The main goal for the CCP’s previous 5-year plan, the 13th 5-year plan, was to lift China from poverty and to “build China into a moderately prosperous society in all respects”.
Now that the 13th 5-year plan period is almost over, has the CCP achieved its goal?
If you have watched my previous show “Xi Jinping vs Li Keqiang: The CCP’s Split Goes Public”, you may remember that I mentioned that the CCP’s premier Li Keqiang openly said a while ago that as many as 600 million people were earning less than 1000 yuan or $149 per month, and that about 60 million people needed low-income insurance, unemployment protection, and special hardship assistance, etc.
In 2019, there were about 200 million Chinese people who earned about 2000 yuan, or $298 per month.
So the overall situation is, 900 million people in China earned less than 2000 yuan or $298 per month; while only about 70 million earned more than 5000 yuan or $745 per month.
In the meantime, there are several hundred billionaires in China and 2 million families whose assets are more than 10 million yuan, or $1.49 million.
So from these simple figures we can see that although the CCP talks about “serving the people”, “the people are the real master of the country”, “Communism means everybody equally and commonly owns everything together”, the gaps between corrupted CCP officials and poor people are startlingly enormous.
Of course, the real situation doesn’t matter in China, as the CCP controls all the media, so nothing can stop it from claiming that it has made another breakthrough with the final battle against poverty, and China is entering a new page of its history in the fight against poverty, etc.
The 14th 5-year Plan
Now, for the 14th 5-year plan, which covers 2021-2025. It is said that both the “Made in China 2025” plan to dominate in high-tech and key manufacturing areas, and the“China Standards 2035” for global specifications on leading technology, will be on the plate.
The problem is, “Made in China 2025” has already failed in many aspects. I remember back in 2018 when I attended a US senate hearing called “China’s Non-Traditional Espionage Against the United States: The Threat and Potential Policy Responses”, Senator John Cornyn pointed to a display board with 10 goals of the CCP’s “Made in China 2025” and said that these were the CCP’s “shopping list” to steal technology from the US.
The FBI’s assistant director of the Counterintelligence Division and Assistant Attorney General of the National Security Division U.S. Department of Justice, and a number of other senators, also testified about how the CCP’s technology theft was a threat to the entire world. They suggested that a “whole of government” approach be adopted for the US to fight back, etc.
Since then, and gradually, the CCP has actually either stopped boasting about its “Made in China 2025” plan or maintained a very low-key position when talking about it.
Why can’t serious scientific and technological innovation and invention happen in CCP’s China? The fundamental reason is still the core problem of CCP's lack of legitimacy. Because of its lack of legitimacy, the CCP has failed to establish a mechanism that encourages innovation and invention.
Instead, making quick money via illegal or despicable means has become a very common practice at every corner of its society.
In this sense, I don’t know how far the CCP’s “Made in China 2025” or “China Standards 2035” can go. What Xi Jinping should be worrying more about is how long the CCP can still survive.
Petitioners and “Interceptors”
Another interesting thing in the CCP’s China is, whenever there is an important meeting or event happening in Beijing or elsewhere, there are always many so-called petitioners trying to break through the security lines to either reach out to higher authorities or attract attention so that their grievances can be heard.
This year in Beijing, the same thing is also happening. As early as 15 days ahead of time, those petitioners started trying to get into Beijing and hide themselves somewhere. Many people switched off their cell phones so that they wouldn’t be tracked.
However, they can be caught any time as the train stations are full of the so-called “interceptors” who check people’s IDs and try to stop the petitioners from going anywhere. Some got caught and beaten up, like this woman in the video. This one was shot at 4 am in the morning outside of the state petitions office on Oct 27, showing that many “interceptors” were already there to stop the petitioners.
It always pains my heart to see how difficult it is for ordinary Chinese citizens to seek justice. The entire society and legal system are totally corrupt, and there is no justice to be sought at all.
The Real Truth and the CCP’s “Truth” about the Korean War
Now, let’s move to another topic: Will the CCP wage war against Taiwan or the US?
Right before its 5th plenary session, on Oct. 23, the CCP held a grand ceremony to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the CCP’s “War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea”.
The CCP has been telling the Chinese people that 70 years ago, the US invaded North Korea, and intended to invade China after they occupied North Korea, and it was the CCP who saved China from being invaded by the US by sending troops to North Korea. They say that the victory of that war won China not only respect in the international world but also peace for decades. Thus the Chinese people should always be very grateful to the CCP.
Believe it or not, this is the “truth” of the Korean War that the Chinese people have been getting for 70 years. The CCP never told the Chinese people that it was North Korea that invaded South Korea first, nor did it tell the Chinese people that it was the United Nation’s decision to send forces to South Korea to repel North Korea’s invasion. The US army just acted on the UN decisions.
The CCP has never told Chinese people how many soldiers really died in that war.
According to some scholars, hundreds of thousands of Chinese soldiers lost their lives. And because of the failure in that war, China suffered very bad consequences, and dozens of millions were starved to death during the Great Chinese Famine that followed the Korean War.
But all this hasn't stopped the CCP from “celebrating” its “victory” each year. At this year’s ceremony, while the US-CCP relations were deteriorating rapidly, Xi Jinping made some very tough remarks:
Xi Jinping: The whole world needs to come to the recognition that the Chinese people are unified and mobilized. We are not to be messed with. If you cross the line, there will be serious consequences!
People soon found out that these few sentences in Xi Jinping’s speech were directly copied from Mao Zedong’s book.
Will the CCP Wage War against Taiwan or the US?
Sorry, this is a bit “off track”. Anyway, after Xi Jinping made these stern statements, people started to speculate again: Will the CCP start a war against Taiwan or the US?
Many overseas Chinese believe that the CCP dares not. When talking about the possibility of the CCP waging a war against Taiwan, Xin Haonian, a famous Chinese scholar, once made some very famous and interesting remarks, “The CCP won’t dare to attack Taiwan no matter what. It will only do so when it is going to die. As soon as it attacks, it will die.”
Xin Haonian is a historian from mainland China who has written a famous book “Which is the New China: Distinguishing between Right and Wrong in Modern Chinese History” to expose the fact that it was the Kuomintang, or the Chinese Nationalist Party, not the CCP, that had really fought the war against Japan in China. So you can say he has a very good understanding of the CCP.
I think his remarks that “The CCP won’t dare to attack Taiwan no matter what” is based on his judgment of the CCP’s mentality, and the real situation of the CCP’s army, which is very corrupt, and not good for fighting a tough war at all.
“Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst”
However, please note that he also said that the CCP will only attack Taiwan when it is going to die. In other words, is there a possibility that the CCP will do something mad if it feels that its end is close and wants to do some final, desperate, and crazy struggle to avoid its demise? “If I die, you die together with me.” That is not a very impossible mentality, right?
So, we’d better be prepared, like that old saying says, “Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.”
The Qing Dynasty and the CCP
I don’t think we need much explanation for the last part of Xin Haonian’s remark, “As soon as the CCP attacks Taiwan, it will die.”
Many people say that China’s current situation is very similar to that of the Qing Dynasty right before its fall in 1912.
Before the Qing Dynasty’s fall, in 1894, there was a very famous war between Japan and the Qing Dynasty, which is called the First Sino-Japanese War. On the surface, the Qing Dynasty had more warships than Japan, but because of the corruption of the Qing Dynasty’s army, it failed bitterly. And the failure was not only a military one but also a result of political corruption and incompetence.
The failure of the First Sino-Japanese War hurt the Qing Dynasty very badly. Also, in 1898, the so-called Hundred Days Reform also failed. The Qing Dynasty thus lost its final chance to reform, and eventually collapsed in 1912.
3 Wars the CCP Fought
Compared with the Qing Dynasty from over 100 years ago, the CCP is not much better off, or even worse.
After the CCP took power, it has so far experienced 3 wars. The first was the Korean War we just talked about.
The second was the war against India in 1962. Although the CCP partly won that war, it retreated very quickly and actually lost over 90,000 square kilometers’ territory in southern Tibet.
The third war was in 1979 against Vietnam. The CCP again suffered huge losses without substantial gains.
So, those are all the wars the CCP fought in the past 70 years. Can it afford to attack Taiwan and then get attacked by the quickly formed new international alliance that especially targets the CCP?
By the way, you may have read the news that even India has just given up its non-alignment stance and signed a military agreement with the US on Oct 27, during U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Mark Esper’s visit to India.
So the bottom line is, if the CCP dares to attack Taiwan, the result will be the same as the First Sino-Japanese War.
For the Chinese people, if they want peace, and to avoid another failed Sino-Japanese War, the best choice is to get rid of the CCP as soon as possible, so that China and the Chinese people can go back to the civilized world and develop peacefully together with the rest of the world.
That’s all for today. Thank you for watching. Truth saves lives. Please subscribe to and share my channel, and check out my other videos.
Thank you, see you soon!
10/28/2020
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