The CCP, Hong Kong, Taiwan, & US: Romance of 4 Kingdoms
Hello, everyone, welcome to “Inconvenient Truths by Jennifer Zeng”.
Recently a lot of major events have happened; and these events will greatly affect the relationships among the US, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and China, or the Chinese Communist Party, the CCP. These events include the first round of mass arrests in Hong Kong after the so-called National Security Law went into effect; The US Health and Human Services Secretary’s visit to Taiwan, the highest-level visit by an American Cabinet official for 40 years, the removal of “China” from the profile logos of the US embassy and consulate in China, Chinese jets crossing the Taiwan Strait median line, and that Taiwan and China were only 30 seconds away from a war, etc.
What is the significance and indications of these events? Let's discuss them one by one.
Why Can’t the CCP Get Hong Kong Right?
First of all, let’s check the mass arrests in Hong Kong on Monday (August 10). Jimmy Lai, the founder of Apple Daily, was arrested along with his two sons, and 7 other pro-democracy activists.
By the way, Apply Daily is one of the only two Chinese language newspapers in Hong Kong that remain independent of the CCP. Another one is the Epoch Times. Almost all other papers have become pro-CCP.
On August 10, Over 200 police officers raided and searched Apply Daily’s office without a court-issued search warrant. According to the new National Security Law, a search warrant is no longer needed if this is a “national security” related case. Jimmy Lai and Apple Daily are regarded as a threat to “national security”, or rather, the CCP, for being critical of the CCP, and supporting Hong Kong people’s fight for freedom.
These arrests happened just 3 days after the US imposed sanctions on 11 individuals, including Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam, for undermining Hong Kong’s autonomy.
At that time, the top CCP leaders and retired elders were also having their mysterious annual Beidaihe Meeting to decide the direction for the party to go.
So these arrests can be viewed as retaliation for America’s sanctions, as well as a decision reached at the Beidaihe Meeting to test how the world would react to the CCP’s further clampdown on Hong Kong.
The irony of this is, while the US sanctioned CCP officials to defend the people of Hong Kong, the CCP arrested its own people to “punish” America. What kind of logic is this?
What surprised, and moved the world was the reactions of ordinary Hong Kongers. Usually, when the chairman of a company gets arrested and is in great trouble, that company’s share price will definitely fall. However, after Jimmy Lai’s arrest, after falling for a short while, the share price of his company jumped from 0.08 HKD to 1.61 HKD in less than 2 days, which was 20 times higher!
Upon investigation, it was found that people who bought the shares were mainly ordinary Hong Kongers, not big companies.
Also, people lined up to buy Apply Daily. Usually, this paper’s daily sales volume is 70K copies per day. But on the day when Jimmy Lai was arrested, 550K copies were sold! The company had to print many more extra copies to meet the demand. People said even if Apple Daily printed just blank papers on that day, they would also buy it.
Some people bought many copies and gave them for free to others to show support. People also lined up outside Jimmy Lai’s son’s restaurant, to express their support.
After seeing these kinds of reactions, many Chinese people were moved to tears. They said, from ancient times to the present, people do business, buy stocks to make money; and the stock market is a place to make a profit, nothing else.
However, today’s people of Hong Kong showed their courage and creativity one more time by turning a money-making business into their votes for justice and freedom.
That’s where the heartless CCP can never get Hong Kong right. They just don’t understand that there are people in the world who don’t live for money, and who cannot be conquered by fear. They don’t understand how people with a soul and a heart will look at the world and react to the suppression.
Although the CCP has, to a great extent, turned almost 1.4 billion Chinese people into its slaves, and some Western politicians and elites into their puppets, there are far more people in the world who treasure freedom more than anything else, and who wouldn’t sell their souls for money.
And because of this reason, I don’t see how the struggle and suffering of the people of Hong Kong can end if the CCP still exists.
However, the sacrifice, courage, and loftiness of Hong Kongers have opened the eyes of many people and won people’s respect and admiration. People of the world have realized that the struggle between the people of Hong Kong and the CCP is also everybody’s struggle, as it is a struggle between freedom and tyranny, as US Secretary of the State Mike Pompeo has put it. The world definitely needs to stand with Hong Kong in this battle, as Hong Kong’s fight is everybody’s fight.
“China” Removed from U.S. Embassy and Consulate’s Profile Images
On the following day of the mass arrests in Hong Kong, another event happened “quietly”, but that soon sparked hot discussion amongst Chinese communities worldwide.
Early morning on August 11, some Chinese netizens found that the profile images of the Weibo, WeChat, and Twitter account of the US Embassy and consulates in China had been updated, with the word “China” removed. What was “Beijing ‧ China” became “Beijing” only, with “China” disappearing.
Immediately people started to debate what the indication of this change meant, especially at a time when the tensions between the US and the CCP were on the rise; while the relations between Taiwan and the US were quickly warming.
Some people say this was one more step on the path of “de-China-ization”, and the US was getting itself ready to enhance its relationships with Taiwan, or even to resume formal diplomatic relations. If that happens, the US can use the same profile image, and replace “Beijing” with “Taipei”.
People also noticed that US Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar was not only the highest level US official who visited Taiwan since 1979, but the plane that took him to Taiwan was a U.S. Air Force aircraft, which belongs to the U. S. government, and is used as a special mission aircraft for US commanders and government officials. In the past, when US officials visited Taiwan, they took commercial flights.
So the indication is very clear. Some commentators say that it is possible for the US to announce that the CCP is an illegal organization at some stage, or to recognize Taiwan as a country too.
If the CCP can have formal diplomatic relationships with both South and North Korea at the same time, why is it so bullying as to not allow others to have formal diplomatic relationships with both Taiwan and the CCP?
30 Seconds Away from War
While Taiwan and the US are getting closer to each other, the CCP is sending out mixed, and conflicting messages.
On the one hand, the CCP’s army frequently shows its muscles in the Taiwan Strait area. For example, on August 10, the CCP’s air force flew fighter jets across the unofficial line that divides the Taiwan Strait into separate Chinese and Taiwanese zones, as a response to Alex Azar’s visit. After crossing the median line, the CCP’s fighter jets were only 5 minutes or 100 km away from the main island of Taiwan Island.
According to Chinese commentator Shi Shan, at that stage, all anti-aircraft missiles on the ground in Taiwan were on full alert, and ready to fire at any minute.
If the CCP’s fighter jets had not flown back as quickly as 10-20 seconds after they flew across the median line, Taiwan would have really launched its missiles. In other words, if the CCP’s fighter jets had flown for 30 seconds longer, a war could have already broken out between Taiwan and the CCP.
On August 13, according to the CCP’s mouthpiece Global Times, the CCP’s army conducted ‘unprecedented’ massive military drills in the Taiwan Strait to openly “warn” “Taiwan secessionists”.
Hu Xijin, the chief editor of Global Times said in a tweet that the exercises show “The PLA is capable of launching a full-scale attack and capturing the island within hours, leaving US military no time to react. It’s a clear warning to Taiwan independence.”
“Don't Fire the First Shot”
However, according to South China Morning Post, which is owned by Alibaba, the CCP’s military were told not to fire the first shot in the stand-off with US forces. In the meantime, the CCP’s top diplomat Wang Yi, Yang Jiechi, and Le Yucheng all started to say that the CCP is ready to have “rational talks” with the US and that there are many areas that the US and China can work together, etc.
There are also rumors that at its mysterious annual “Beidaihe meeting”, the CCP made a new "3 soft & 3 tough" policy: soft on the US, soft on the West & soft on actions; and tough on domestic issues, propaganda & HK.
So, obviously, these are different messages from the military's actions. So which messages represent the CCP’s true intention?
Don’t Underestimate Xi Jinping’s Desire to “Liberate Taiwan”
According to Popular Chinese commentator and YouTuber Wen Zhao, people should never underestimate Xi Jinping’s desire to “liberate Taiwan”. Next year is the CCP’s 100th year anniversary of its establishment, if Xi could “unify” Taiwan, that would be his most desired political legacy.
This year there have been quite a lot of military exercises happening in southern provinces of China, and many people laughed at the incompetence of the CCP’s army. They didn’t take these exercises seriously.
However, Wen Zhao said that the real purpose of these exercises could be to move the armies around, to have them gathered at designated places so that when they are needed, they can be put into combat right away.
Otherwise, if the CCP armies didn’t do the exercises, in the future, if they are really going to attack Taiwan, as soon as they start to move, their whereabouts will be captured by US satellites, and it will be difficult for the CCP army to hide its intention.
Will the CCP attack Taiwan or not? Perhaps nobody knows. But we do know that the CCP does have motivations to attack Taiwan: It would be a big gift for the CCP’s 100th year anniversary if the CCP can “unify” Taiwan; it would divert people’s attention away from the CCP’s crises; it would bring the country to an emergency state so that the CCP can do what they cannot do in a peaceful time, such as to freeze people’s bank accounts, to seize people’s assets, etc.
In this sense, I think it is better for the world, especially for Taiwan and the US to get prepared.
Romance of 4 Kingdoms
There is a famous Chinese idiom “Ci Xiao Bi Zhang (此消彼长)”, which means when some forces are rising, other forces are falling. There is also a very famous classical Chinese novel called Romance of Three Kingdoms. The novel tells the stories about how 3 forces fought among themselves to establish their own kingdoms about 1700 years ago. Those fascinating and intriguing stories have excited many Chinese readers for hundreds of years.
Well, the recent events I just discussed today strongly remind me of the novel Romance of Three Kingdoms. That’s why I gave this episode the title “The CCP, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the US: Romance of 4 Kingdoms”.
Which forces will rise, and which forces will fall after the current somewhat“chaotic” battles and fights end? I think the process and answer are more fascinating and intriguing than the stories in Romance of Three Kingdoms. We are not only witnessing big, big changes unfolding right in front of our eyes, but are also given the opportunities to participate, and play a part in these historical events and changes.
That’s all for today. Thanks for watching. Truth, no matter how inconvenient it is, does save lives. Please subscribe to my channel, and check out my other videos.
Thank you. See you next time!
8/14/2020
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